THE RISE OF A STRATEGIC SPOILER: RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN SECURITY STRATEGY

Kappis, Vassilis (Bill) (2019) THE RISE OF A STRATEGIC SPOILER: RUSSIA’S EUROPEAN SECURITY STRATEGY. In: A Closer Look at Russia and its Influence on the World. Nova Science Publishers, New York. ISBN 978-1-53615-631-7 (In Press)

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Abstract

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 was the latest step in Moscow’s steadfast rejection of the post-Cold War security order in Europe. Nevertheless, analysts and scholars remain puzzled as to what exactly constitutes Russia’s long-term game plan vis-à-vis Europe. This chapter suggests that, far from following a concrete, well-planned blueprint at the operational and tactical levels, Russia’s grand strategic objectives enable Moscow to adopt a fluid, adaptive posture aiming at achieving two interconnected goals: to maintain, or even improve, the continental military balance of power through the deployment of strategic weapons and at the same time acquire the capabilities to disrupt NATO’s air and naval superiority in critical flashpoints, an aspiration that had been elusive even at the peak of the Cold War rivalry. The implications of Russia’s grand strategic doctrine are thus crucial for Europe’s security outlook; Moscow’s approach implies that Russian deterrence at the highest levels will be robust, while low-level, disruptive tactics in areas where Russia maintains an operational advantage could challenge the European security status quo. Contemporary developments, therefore, may enable Russia to undermine NATO’s supremacy in the Euro-Atlantic geopolitical space, altering the post-Cold War order.

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