Competing Hypotheses in Contemporary Intelligence Analysis

Richards, Julian (2014) Competing Hypotheses in Contemporary Intelligence Analysis. In: The Art of Intelligence: Simulations, Exercises and Games. Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham MD, pp. 23-34. ISBN 9781442228986

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Abstract

This chapter presents that rationale for using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) as an analytical training tool for analysts in all disciplines. What the exercise presented in this chapter aima to do is to provide an experience and an environment in which analysts can consider some important issues of analytical weakness and bias, and to consider how to mitigate these using structured techniques. In particular, the risks of confirmation bias, satisficing, prevailing wisdom and a lack of imagination in considering alternative scenarios, are all usefully highlighted in this exercise, and ACH is offered as a way of tackling such analytical pitfalls. The extra element of considering source credibility also allows analysts to think a bit more about source evaluation, and the possibility of denial and deception.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: intelligence, analysis, simulations
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Divisions: School of Humanities > Economics and International Studies
Depositing User: Julian Richards
Date Deposited: 21 Mar 2019 12:41
Last Modified: 21 Mar 2019 12:41
URI: http://bear.buckingham.ac.uk/id/eprint/301

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